Pandemic Politics: Takeaways from Night Three of the RNC: Ignorance, Fear, Lies, and Idolatry

 Convention season is winding down and night three of the Republican National Convention is in the books. One of the advantages of the technology age is virtually everything gets recorded and archived for posterity. We don't have to wonder if people actually said something or claim they said something. Instead, we can simply pull up the video and gasp in horror as they say it. At least that was my reaction to watching some of the videos from the RNC. Four things I noticed by watching and listening to the speakers during the convention are the sheer level of ignorance they espouse, the fear-mongering about what will happen if they lose power, the blatant falsehoods told about their political opponents, and, sadly, idolatry from America's supposedly evangelical vice-president, Mike Pence. As Christians, it is our obligation to speak truthfully in love at all times. Perhaps someone should send Mr. Pence a Bible with some highlighted passages for him to study. I wonder if he will regret having sold his soul when his political career is over, hopefully in four and a half months. 

Let's begin with ignorance: The Republican Party likes to proclaim its fondness for America's history and frequently cites actions and words by our founding fathers and other historical statesmen from the past. In many cases, they get it wrong so they just make up something that sounds like a historical figure might have said it. Here's Lara Trump supposedly quoting Abraham Lincoln:

Trump declared that Abraham Lincoln "once famously said, 'America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves.'"

Only, he never said that. Ever. Lincoln did, however, condemn mob violence in an 1838 speech to young men. Perhaps that was the sentiment that Ms. Trump wished to convey. It is a common theme at the RNC this year, which I will get to in a moment. 

Another attempt at rewriting history came from Madison Cawthorn (R-NC) when he claimed that James Madison signed the Declaration of Independence in 1776. Sorry, Madison, wishful thinking won't make it so. Altogether, there were seven signatories from Virginia but Madison was not among them, including its author, and future president, Thomas Jefferson. History is not hard folks. Get it right.

Let's move on to fear, which seems to be the primary theme of the RNC. Lots and lots of well-off white people are trotted out to give speeches about all that we have to fear in 'Joe Biden's America.' There will be riots, looting, protests, massive hurricanes (okay, I made that one up but he must have something to do with them, right?). If Joe Biden is elected president, America will be in flames, socialism will be everywhere, your kids won't get taxpayer-funded religious education, and low-income apartments will be built in the suburbs. Gasp! 

Let's think about what all these rich white people are actually saying. America will be in flames with riots and protests. That is happening now but not because of Joe Biden. It is happening because of the failure of the Trump Administration to speak out against police brutality against people of color. It is happening because young, unarmed black men keep getting shot by police officers. It is happening because most Americans have had enough of the systemic racism in our institutions. Far from enabling more of that, Joe Biden will adopt policies that will end those things. 

Socialism will be everywhere if Joe Biden wins? Really? Has he announced a plan to take state ownership of the means of production? If so, I haven't heard of it yet. Do these people even know what socialism actually consists of? I don't think so. They conflate shared responsibility with socialism all the time. I suggest they stop buying auto insurance, homeowner's insurance, and any other form of shared responsibility insurance if they're worried about socialism. Let them put up a surety bond to pay all their own expenses out of pocket if a catastrophe occurs. 

Low-income apartments are coming soon to a wealthy suburban neighborhood near you if Joe Biden wins. So what? Don't the poor deserve to live in safe, clean neighborhoods? Are these rich white people insinuating that poor people don't deserve to enjoy the American dream? I don't get what they fear about poor people. I guess if you can isolate them to low-income neighborhoods you never have to drive through you can forget they even exist. That makes it easier to believe that Donald Trump cares about people like you. 

Then, there are the blatant lies told by every speaker at the convention. Donald Trump cares about you. He is a compassionate man who loves all Americans and works hard every day on their behalf. He does so on Air Force One as he flies to Mar-a-Lago, he does so as he plays golf, he does so as he sleeps because he is so smart he absorbs things. After all, his uncle was a doctor. 

Oh wait, you want me to be specific about the lies. Okay, buckle up Buttercup because it is going to be a bumpy ride. Burgess Owens claimed that we fought against socialism in WWII. Uh, what? The communists (socialists) actually fought on our side against the Nazis (fascism). Look it up some time Burgess. 

The night ended with Mike Pence claiming the Trump Administration has made America great again. Let's see, over 180,000 dead as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the highest total in the world. Yep, that's greatness. At least we are number one in something. Millions of Americans are jobless, neighborhoods are burning, secret police forces are arresting citizens, and only 30% of Americans approve of the job the president is doing. That sounds like greatness to me. 

One of my political heroes, Ronald Reagan, ran for re-election in 1984 based on the idea of whether we were better off in 1984 than we were four years earlier. The overwhelming answer given by a majority of Americans was 'YES.' This administration can't ask that question because the vast majority of Americans would have to say no. Sure, some rich white people would say yes. But what has the administration actually done for working Americans? 

Mike Pence has made a point to claim he is an evangelical Christian. I'm not here to cast doubt on the veracity of that claim as only God knows the true state of a man's heart. It does, however, seem hypocritical (at the very least) to make such a claim and then publicly lie about your political opponent. 

Historian John Fea put it this way (parentheses are mine):

Pence’s speech was filled with misleading statements, half-truths, and blatant lies. He claimed that Joe Biden wants to defund the police (Biden specifically denied this here). 

He said that Biden “opposed the operation” that killed Osama bin Laden.” 

He said that Donald Trump has “achieved energy independence for the United States.” (This actually happened in 2013 under President Obama) 

He said Joe Biden wants to “end school choice.” 

He said Joe Biden wants to scrap tariffs on Chinese goods. 

He said that “no one who required a ventilator was ever denied a ventilator in the United States.” 

He said that Trump suspended “all travel from China” before the coronavirus spread. 

He said that Biden did not condemn the violence in American cities. 

He said that Biden supports open borders. 

All of these statements are either false or misleading.

Pence should know better and be held to a higher standard since he claims to be a man of faith. How he lives with himself, I have no idea. I know I could not do it, which is why I teach politics and will never run for office. 

Finally, Fea discusses the open idolatry Pence spoke about at the convention. He says it better than I ever could so I'll let his explanation suffice.

Finally, Pence has proven to be a master at fusing the Bible with American ideals. Again, this is not new. The patriotic ministers of the American Revolution did this all the time. It was heretical then. It is heretical now. Such a rhetorical strategy manipulates the Bible for political gain.

For example, Pence said, “Where the spirit of the Lord is, there is freedom, and that means freedom always wins.” Pence is referencing 2 Corinthians 3:17: “now the Lord is the Spirit, and where the Spirit of the Lord is, there is freedom.” This passage has NOTHING to do with the political or “American” freedom Pence was touting in his speech. St. Paul spoke these words to encourage the Corinthian church to live Spirit-filled lives that would free them from the bondage sin, death, and guilt. Pence has taken a deeply spiritual message and bastardized it to serve partisan politics and this corrupt president.

In the same paragraph, Pence says, “So let’s run the race marked out for us. Let’s fix our eyes on Old Glory and all she represents, fix our eyes on this land of heroes and let their courage inspire. Let’s fix our eyes on the author and perfecter of our faith and freedom.”
Here Pence is referencing Hebrews 12: 1-2. That passage says: “Therefore, since we are surrounded by such a great cloud of witnesses, let us throw off everything that hinders and the sin that so easily entangles. And let us run with perseverance the race marked out for us, fixing our eyes on Jesus, the pioneer and perfecter of faith.”

Again, see what Pence is doing here. Instead of fixing our eyes on Jesus, we should fix our eyes on “Old Glory,” a symbol of American nationalism. The “heroes” he speaks of are not the men and women of faith discussed in the previous chapter of Hebrews (Abel, Enoch, Noah, Abraham, Sarah, Issac, Jacob, Joseph, Moses, Rahab, Gideon, Barak, Samson, Jepthah, David, Samuel, and the prophets), they are the “heroes” (as he interprets them) of American history. Jesus is the “author and perfecter” of our faith and [American] freedom.”

The use of the Bible in this way is a form of idolatry. My friend and history teacher Matt Lakemacher gets it right:

Hebrews 12, which Pence is “quoting” here, says to fix our eyes on Jesus, the author and perfecter of our faith. While Pence gets around to him (although not by name) it only comes after asking us to fix our eyes on “Old Glory” & “this land of heroes”. #RNC2020 #courtevangelicalpic.twitter.com/RoULj79TGd

— Matt Lakemacher (@matlake27) August 27, 2020

Pence’s mixing of Hebrews 12 and American nationalism is idolatry. It is blasphemy. The American flag is not the author and perfecter of our faith. #RNC2020 #CourtEvangelicals #ChristianNationalism

— Matt Lakemacher (@matlake27) August 27, 2020

Christians beware...the GOP is using you to achieve their political purposes. It is time to stand up and say enough is enough. 

Pandemic Politics: Christian Faith and the Party Conventions

 As we approach the end of the 2020 political party conventions, the rhetoric is ratcheting up once again between the Democrats and the Republicans. Each party wants to appeal to some segment of Christian voters in the battleground states. Six states appear to be the most important for the outcome of the 2020 Presidential Election. All six were carried by Donald Trump in 2016 and he needs to hold on to at least four of them to have any hope of victory in 2020. For the Republicans, it means holding on to a large swath of the white evangelicals Trump secured in 2016. According to Pew Research, 81% of self-identified, white evangelicals supported Trump. Early polling this year indicates his support may have fallen a bit but will still be similar to the numbers pulled by John McCain (74%) and Mitt Romney (78%) in 2008 and 2012, respectively. As a reformed, white evangelical myself, I find these numbers both easy to understand and deeply troubling. 

First, I understand the level of evangelical support on one level due to the chasm that has developed between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party on the issue of abortion. As the parties have become more polarized over the past several decades, the center has all but disappeared. From a political science perspective, that means that all (or nearly all) Republicans oppose abortion and all (or nearly all) Democrats support abortion rights, even if they personally oppose abortion. For many white evangelicals, nothing else matters. Their choice is seemingly quite easy. 

However, things are never as black and white as the parties make them seem, which is why I find white evangelical support for Donald Trump so troubling. Christianity is about far more than the latest front in the culture war. Christ did not come to Earth to make morally good citizens for hell. He did not command his disciples to go forth and teach people to make sound moral choices on their way to hell. He taught them to go forth and make disciples of every nation, tongue, and tribe, teaching them to observe all that he commanded. Notice that making the disciples comes before teaching obedience to His commands (or at least simultaneously with it). I have yet to find commands from Jesus to reform contemporary society, though I agree that Christians should be a force for good and fight against injustice on all fronts, whether it be the slaughter of the unborn or the killing of another unarmed person (regardless of race) by the police. 

Therein lies the problem with Donald Trump, at least for this reformed evangelical. He (and his party) use Christians to achieve their own political ends. Trump has no core beliefs. He has been pro-choice, pro-life, for Kamala Harris, against Kamala Harris, for Joe Biden, against Joe Biden, and so on. He will do or say anything to gain the adulation he desires. Like the beast of Revelation, he wants the world to fall at his feet and worship him. Sadly, many American Christians have done just that. 

The Bible teaches Christians to love their neighbors as themselves but their preferred presidential candidate spews hatred and deceit from the bully pulpit. A Washington Post analysis shows that Donald Trump has lied or put forth misinformation some 20,000 times. In a conversation with a Christian friend recently, he tried to make that equivalent to President Obama making what turned out to be a false statement about keeping your healthcare if you liked it. His point was that both parties lie so voting for one liar over another is really not a big deal. I would also say there is a difference between deliberately deceiving people and something turning out to be false. Motives matter, at least to this Christian. 

In addition, the Bible teaches Christians to be faithful to their spouses. Donald Trump has cheated on three wives, divorced two of them, paid hush money to a porn star, and admitted on tape to sexually assaulting women because he was a 'celebrity.' No matter, my Christian brethren say, Democrats are far worse. Really? Joe Biden married his current wife (Jill) after he was suddenly widowed at a young age when his wife and daughter died in a tragic automobile accident. By all accounts, Biden has been faithful to his second wife, though unverifiable claims of assault have been leveled against him, which he has categorically denied. Barack Obama was also faithful to his wife Michelle and raised two daughters (Sasha and Malia). Yet, he was mercilessly attacked by the right and accused of being secretly gay and frequenting bathhouses in Chicago. Sadly, my Christian brethren lap this up like a dog returning to its vomit instead of standing up against it. 

Of course, we all know who was the biggest proponent of the lies leveled against Barack Obama...the man occupying the White House right now. He perpetuated the so-called 'birther' movement and has suggested that Kamala Harris is ineligible to become president since her parents were immigrants, though she was born in Berkeley, CA. It is the same tactic he tried to use on 'little' Marco Rubio in the 2015-16 Republican Presidential debates. Something about not bearing false witness seems to be running through my mind right now. 

Granted, we are all sinners in desperate need of God's grace and forgiveness, which comes only by accepting the propitiatory sacrifice Jesus Christ made for those who would trust in Him to reconcile them to a holy God. We all break every commandment given to us by our Lord every day. We do it knowingly through acts of commission and we do it unknowingly through acts of omission. 

I am told by many of my Christian brethren that there is no way a Christian can support a Democrat, especially one that is pro-choice. My reply is always that there is no way an honest Christian can support Donald Trump or the modern Republican Party. It espouses 'faith and values' at its convention while endorsing a man who has neither. Convention speakers stand up and tell blatantly false lies about Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. One speaker was removed from the lineup yesterday for retweeting a bunch of anti-semitic garbage earlier in the day. One couple praises Trump for removing an Obama era rule that required low-income housing be built near new suburban communities. In other words, keep the non-white riff-raff out so our property values don't decline. All the while, speaker after speaker claims Trump is a decent, honest man. I've seen the president's tweets, listened to his lies for four long years, and watched my country burn because the man in the Oval Office cares only about getting attention. Instead of working to resolve longstanding issues of race, he denies they exist. Instead of working to ensure healthcare access for everyone, he sues to undercut the Affordable Care Act at a time when 30 million Americans lost their jobs and their healthcare. Instead of letting the doctors and scientists present Americans with the facts about COVID-19, he dismissively claimed it would be gone by early March. Nearly six months later and 180,000 Americans have died due to his mishandling, misdirection, and misleading messaging. Ah, but at least he's against abortion. Today. Who knows what he'll believe tomorrow.

Pandemic Politics: The World Turned Upside Down

It is now early August of the year that shall not be named. We all long for a return to the 'before times' when we knew nothing about the virus that has turned the world and our country upside down. Since March we have seen nearly 4.7 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States and more than 155,000 confirmed deaths. Public health experts estimate the actual number of infections is six to ten times higher, which would mean somewhere between 30 and 45 million people have been infected in the U.S. Unfortunately, that is far fewer than what we need to gain herd immunity (if it exists with this virus). We need somewhere between 200 and 240 million people to be infected before that happens. In the meanwhile, our best bet is to wear face coverings, practice physical distancing, and avoid closed-in spaces such as theatres, bars, restaurants, and churches. Yet, with flu season just a couple of months away, we could be in for a very bad fall/winter season. 

The early response to the pandemic was to cease non-essential economic activity, which was, in my humble opinion, the right move. Unfortunately, many states jumped the gun on restarting their economies, which also provided the virus with a path to continue its assault on America. Patience is a virtue that many lack, especially political leaders whose very careers may hang on the performance of the economy. The saddest part is that states such as Florida were on the verge of crushing the spread of the virus in early May. One more month of a complete lockdown might have been enough to prevent further spread of the virus. Yes, the economic pain might have been difficult for many people but the result of opening too soon has been a dramatic spike in cases and a trebling of deaths. More than 7,000 Floridians have now died from COVID-19 and the state is second only to California in the total number of cases. It did not have to be this way. 

Nationally, the economy has taken a terrible dive. More Americans are out of work as a result of the mishandling of the pandemic than were out of work when the economy collapsed during the Great Recession from 2007-09. The graphic below shows the unemployment rate for those 16 years of age or older from 2007 to the present.

As you can see, the unemployment rate steadily declined following the Great Recession and had reached what economists refer to as 'full employment' in February of this year. In a nutshell, full employment is a situation where anyone who wants a job can find one. Those who are classified as unemployed are usually either underemployed or transitioning between jobs. That number will always be around 3% of the workforce for a variety of reasons. It may take a year or more before we get anywhere near that number again because many businesses that were forced to shut down in March may never reopen or may downsize when they do reopen. 

In addition to the unemployment rate, GDP fell in the 2nd quarter of the year by a whopping 32.9%, which is the worst single-quarter decline in history. The effect of this decline will be with us for quite some time and will disproportionately impact certain industries, such as hospitality and tourism. The loss of income means people won't travel for vacations to places such as Walt Disney World or book cruise vacations (if and when they are allowed to resume operations). Sales at restaurants and hotels will be well below average for a very long time. Airlines will likely suffer as well due to the lack of travelers taking vacations. See below for additional information.

Beyond the impact on consumers is the impact the decline will have on government revenue. Any substantive decline in GDP results in a decline in government revenue, which means the federal, state, and local governments will have to borrow more (or be granted funds from the federal level) to accomplish basic services demanded by citizens. Since 48 of the 50 states have constitutional amendments that require them to balance their budgets each year, the feds will need to step in and help. But where will they get the money? By borrowing against the future, of course. But our national debt is already over $26.5 trillion and rising. Pre-pandemic, the Trump Administration expected to add $4.8 trillion to this total in his first four years and another $3.5 trillion in his second term. Due to the pandemic, that amount is now at $6.8 trillion plus whatever stimulus package emerges from Congress in the next week or so plus the shortfall from the reduction in revenue due to the economic collapse. Needless to say, President Trump is on track to increase the national debt more than any of his predecessors in just four years and leave future generations with the bill. 

Why does the debt matter, you might ask? The short answer is that it matters because we must pay interest on it every year. For the current fiscal year, that interest comprises about 10% of the federal budget, or about $405 billion with two full months left in this fiscal year. That's money we cannot use to fund education, infrastructure programs, military improvements, social safety net programs, or anything else. By the end of the fiscal year, the interest on the debt alone may be a record $600 billion! Compare that to the total deficit in President Obama's final year of $672 billion. Trump's total deficit for the year was expected to be about $1.3 trillion pre-pandemic. His post-pandemic total is estimated to hit $3.7 trillion for the year. It will likely be another trillion above that due to the next fiscal package coming from Congress. 

The point of this is not to blame the president for the debt or the deficit, though he does deserve some of that to be sure, especially for the massive increase in debt attributed to his 2017 tax cuts and boosts in military spending. The point is that this situation is far worse than it had to be. Competent leadership from Washington at the outset of the pandemic would have allowed us to get through this with far less pain, both in terms of deaths and economic disaster. Consistent messaging from the White House with a focus on masks, physical distancing, and maintaining the shutdowns until we had the virus under control would have lessened the impact. The same can be said about providing testing supplies and especially rapid testing. Tests are useless when the results take 10-14 days to get. Money should have been focused on contact tracing, enforcing self-quarantine rules, etc. Very little of that is being done. Tourists show up on half-empty airplanes one day and are traipsing around Walt Disney World the next. 

The bottom line is this: We are in for a lot of pain and heartache in the months (perhaps years) that lay ahead. We have a president that has failed to lead, buried his head in the sand, and when he does speak, lies to the American people about what is really going on. Recently, he suggested postponing the November election due to concerns that voting by mail will result in tremendous levels of fraud. Of course, there is no evidence to support such a claim. Many Republicans, including the Lincoln Project and the founder of the Federalist Society have had enough. They have reached the conclusion that four years of Joe Biden/??? will be more tolerable than another four years of rudderless government under Donald J. Trump. Hopefully, the voters agree with their assessment in November. If there is an election. 

Pandemic Politics: How Did We Get Here? George Floyd, Economic Collapse, and the Coronavirus

It has been a while since my last post, mostly because I have been grappling with my thoughts and feelings in the wake of watching yet another unarmed African-American die at the hands of those who are sworn to serve and protect their fellow citizens. I have also been watching as peaceful protests have been co-opted by those with evil intentions...burning buildings, destroying private property, looting stores, and rioting in the streets. These individuals do more to turn people against the cause of change than they realize. The question, I suppose, is how did we get here? An ancillary question is where do we go from here?

How Did We Get Here?

This question is not as easy to answer as it may seem. Racism has been prevalent in America for most of its history. Sometimes that racism is overt, as in the northeast of my youth, and sometimes it is much more covert, as in many places in the modern-day South. Over the past decade, and I am sure well before that, there have been a series of cases of unarmed African-Americans killed by police officers. From Freddie Gray to Michael Brown to Eric Gardner to George Floyd, these incidents continue to happen. Do they indicate a pattern of systemic racism, as the protesters claim, or are they isolated incidents that receive a lot of press coverage due to the prevalence of modern technology? That is a question for rigorous academic research to answer. For my part, one instance is too many and we must find a way to ensure that such incidents do not recur in the future. Every person has a right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, regardless of skin color, national origin, gender, ethnicity, sexual orientation, religion, or whatever other characteristics they might possess. Police brutality must be dealt with firmly to discourage it from happening again and again. 

Another reason we have reached this point is complacency in our politics. All that is necessary for the abnormal to become acceptable is for it to happen again and again and again. That which was morally reprehensible becomes acceptable over time if we do not demand an end to it. That is one of the encouraging things about the current protests. Americans of all races and creeds are uniting in opposition to racism and police brutality except one...elected officials within the Republican Party. It seems to be a party adrift without a rudder or a moral compass these days. From the president threatening to shoot looters to using tear gas, rubber bullets, and flash-bang grenades to clear Lafayette Square for a photo-op at St. John's Church to Republican Senators dodging questions about the incident, the party has been all but silent. Why?

In a recent article in The Atlantic, Anne Applebaum compares the collaboration of French elites with the Nazi invaders after the fall of Paris to the condescension of Republican elites to Donald Trump's redefinition of what is acceptable in American politics. As she points out, the comparison is not between Hitler and Trump, it is between their enablers. In both cases, the elites calculated that their careers would be better served by going along with what they knew was wrong than by standing against it. Washington, D.C., and by implication, America itself, fell in November of 2016 when Donald J. Trump was elected as the 45th President of the United States. 

Ms. Applebaum makes her case by pointing to two different elites within the Republican Party and their collaboration (or lack thereof) with Trump. The first is Senator Lindsay Graham, who spoke about Trump being dangerous and deranged before he was elected president but has since become one of the president's key defenders and sycophants. On the other hand, Mitt Romney warned of the fall that would come with Trump's nomination and election as president, a position he has maintained afterward, including his vote to convict the president following the Senate's impeachment trial. Why has Graham abandoned his ideals while Romney held onto his? One clue may be found in Romney's Mormonism, which does not include shifting moral grounds while Graham's evangelical base in South Carolina embraced Trumpism whole-heartedly. Going against one's base is politically dangerous. Thus, Graham enables Trumpism and its continued assault on American ideals. 

A decade ago, America was in the second year of the Obama Presidency, the first (and only) African-American to serve as the nation's chief executive. Many hoped America had finally overcome the stains of its racial past. Alas, that hope was quickly vanquished as Tea Partiers launched an assault on Obama's character that labeled him as a Kenyan witch-doctor who was not born in America. This led to the so-called 'birther' conspiracy promoted largely by none other than Donald J. Trump, who offered to put up $5 million for Obama's birth certificate, which the president produced. Of course, Trump and his sycophants claimed it was a fake and failed to produce the cash. Imagine the outrage if President Obama had responded to his critics the way Trump does to his, tweeting nasty epithets about them. The Republicans' heads would literally have exploded as they called him out and labeled him an angry black man. President Obama, of course, did not react to his critics that way. He simply went about the business of being the President of the United States. 

Fast forward a decade to June 2020. Donald Trump has spent much of the past four years attacking his political opponents, urging foreign governments to investigate his rivals (illegally), telling America how great he and his administration are, and lying through his teeth about it the whole time. Yet, his fanboys on Fox and within the Republican Party eat it up like dogs licking the vomit off the floor. It is a party that has descended into irrelevancy and should be rewarded by banishment from office forever. But it won't be because Americans are too wedded to their parties. As Trump has worked tirelessly to divide Americans against each other (see this piece by General James Mattis), Republicans in Congress have cowered behind their masks believing that the Trump era will one day end and they can say they were against him all along. I hope we are smarter than that. I hope we never forget their cowardice in the face of a full-frontal assault on this great nation. I hope we never forget how President Trump desecrated the memory of George Floyd by claiming that he was 'looking down' and smiling because the economic jobs report was better than expected, which made it a 'great day' for him and for all Americans. I hope we never forget that George Floyd was murdered by four police officers in Minneapolis, MN. 

Where Do We Go From Here?

America cannot begin to heal until it comes to grips with what President Trump has done. Until it is willing to call out the president for his divisiveness, for his abuse of power, and for his triviality. He has done more to make America the laughing stock of the world than any president in my lifetime. But the one thing it will take above all else to undo the damage he has done and begin to set this country back on the path to 'a more perfect union' is a recognition by elected Republicans of their complicity and their collaboration in the destruction of American ideals. When the party remembers its roots as the party of Lincoln, when its elected officials are willing to stand up against Trump's abuse of power and degradation of the Constitution, only then will there be a chance to right the sinking ship. It is a time for courage, not for cowards. It is time for honest people everywhere to stop enabling this president. It is time for our voices to be heard by saying we are 'mad as hell and we're not going to take it anymore.' 

Pandemic Politics: Memorial Day 2020 and the Embarrassment of a Nation

While Memorial Day marks the first unofficial day of summer for much of America, it is also a somber day. It is a day to thank those who gave the ultimate sacrifice in service to their country. Originally, it applied to those in military service and that is still its primary meaning. However, we also remember those who have given their lives for their country and their communities through public service as police, firefighters, and, due to this pandemic, frontline medical professionals. I hope you will take a moment to remember those we have lost and those who gave all they had that we might be free.

This Memorial Day seems different than those in the past for many reasons. First, we are in the midst of a global pandemic, unlike anything any of us have ever experienced. The unofficial data from Johns Hopkins University reports nearly 1,650,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States and nearly 98,000 deaths. We will top 100,000 deaths sometime on May 26, 2020 and there is no end in sight. The numbers of new cases are not falling, contrary to the president's claim. We are still reporting 20,000+ new cases every single day. On a positive note, the death rate seems to be declining, possibly due to the lockdown of long-term care facilities and the hesitation of elderly citizens and those with co-morbidity issues to venture into public places. Nevertheless, America leads the world in both the number of cases and the number of deaths. A sad statistic to be number one in, especially since our president promised us he had the virus under control and it was nothing to worry about. Right.

Remember what the president said back in March? It's Memorial Day, don't forget it. Here's a reminder:

March 10: “And it hit the world. And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”
 
March 11: “I think we’re going to get through it very well.”
 
March 12: “It’s going to go away. ... The United States, because of what I did and what the administration did with China, we have 32 deaths at this point … when you look at the kind of numbers that you’re seeing coming out of other countries, it’s pretty amazing when you think of it.”

The president clearly has a different definition of doing a great job than I do. If I promised my employer that something wouldn't be a problem and 100,000+ people died in just over two months, I wouldn't have my job and I might be held criminally liable. Not this president. In fact, when asked if he felt any responsibility due to his downplaying of the pandemic, he made up another lie and claimed he always thought it was a pandemic, way before anyone else thought it was a pandemic. If so, Mr. President, why did you tell us it was nothing to worry about? That, of course, is the problem with pathological liars. They lie so frequently that they do not even know what they lied about yesterday so why not just make up something new today. And his gullible supporters will excuse and defend him while trying to deflect blame onto the media, the Democrats, the Chinese, the WHO, or whoever else they can. 

Take these retweets from the president this weekend meant to distract from the horrible job he is doing a president:

About Stacy Abrams (African-American candidate for GA governor):

“We just got a look at the official portrait for the self-proclaimed Governor of Georgia. She fought a tough race, kissed a lot of babies, and visited every buffet restaurant in the state. Joe will be a racist if he doesn’t pick her.”


About Nancy Pelosi:

“Anyone know what’s going on with PolyGrip? I’ve noticed lately that her face seems glossy and she is sporting a poorly marked 2nd set of eyebrows,"

In a second tweet attacking Pelosi’s appearance that appeared on Trump’s Twitter feed over the weekend, Stahl took a shot at the Speaker’s teeth, claiming she wore dentures, and wrote that she drank alcohol “on the job.”

About Hillary Clinton:

Another post from Stahl that Trump retweeted referred to Clinton, who ran against Trump in the 2016 presidential election, as “HRC the Skank.”

This is racist and misogynistic language that should be beneath the President of the United States. Once again, Mr. Trump has disgraced himself, the office of the president, the American people, and our nation. When will someone stand up to this bully and say enough is enough? Why do we tolerate from the president what we would never tolerate from our friends and family members? Any employer would be justified to fire such an individual. It is time for America to fire its president.

I expect more from the President of the United States than a pack of lies each day. I expect more from him than demeaning attacks on those he disagrees with politically. Yes, I know I will be sorely disappointed by expecting anything resembling presidential leadership from this president. I know he will never tell the truth nor will he admit to getting it wrong. He simply cannot accept the fact that he, like the rest of us, is a fallible, sinful human being who does not have all the answers. This is why I vehemently opposed his candidacy in 2015-16 and his election in 2016. This is why, as a lifelong Republican, I am in the Never Trump camp. I long for a president that is willing to work with those with whom he disagrees. Give me Ronald Reagan (tax reform and Social Security reform with a Democratic Congress), give me George H.W. Bush (the Americans with Disabilities Act and deficit reduction w/ a Democratic Congress), give me Bill Clinton (Welfare reform w/ a Republican Congress), give me George W. Bush (education reform, children's health insurance w/ a Democratic Congress), and give me Barack Obama (education reform w/ a Republican Congress). 

I'd love to put Donald Trump on that list but I cannot think of one piece of bipartisan legislation he has promoted or signed (other than the three Coronavirus acts, which any president would have signed). What has President Trump done to reach across the aisle and work with the opposition to accomplish something for Americans? Nothing. Sure, he signed the Republican tax cuts in 2017 that blew up our deficit and gave trillions of dollars back to wealthy supporters while middle-class folks got $6 a week in their paychecks. At least I could afford a second Starbucks white chocolate mocha each week. Thanks, Donald. 

So, on this Memorial Day, think of all we have lost and all you have to be thankful for. Tell those special people in your life that you care about them. Treat strangers with kindness and courtesy. Reach out to those with whom you disagree and be reconciled. They will not be here forever. Use the fierce urgency of now to be a peacemaker, a humble soul, and an all-around better human being. Don't look to the president for guidance because you will not find it there. Look to 'our better angels' as a great president once said. Look at the man in the mirror and make that change. 

Only then will God Bless this great country that so many have fled to as their only hope of light in a darkened world.

Pandemic Politics and the Plight of Immigrants

A friend of mine recently told me that her dad always considered the United States the greatest country on earth. It was the land of the free, the home of the brave, and a place many immigrants longed to come to in search of a better life. For nearly the first 150 years of our existence as a nation, all were welcome. While sailing for the New World back in 1630, John Winthrop said that the eyes of the world would always be upon America and 'that we shall be as a city upon a hill....' Those words were repeated by John F. Kennedy shortly before his inauguration in 1961 and 28 years later by President Ronald Reagan in his farewell address to the nation he loved.


The reference to a 'city on a hill' is biblical and found in Matthew chapter 5:14-16. It reads as follows:

14 “You are the light of the world. A city set on a hill cannot be hidden. 15 Nor do people light a lamp and put it under a basket, but on a stand, and it gives light to all in the house. 16 In the same way, let your light shine before others, so that they may see your good works and give glory to your Father who is in heaven.

The purpose of this passage is to show the world the good works we do and let them give glory to God because of them. Now is the time for Christians in America and elsewhere to live up to these words and let their light shine before men. Now is the time for America to be that shining city set upon a hill. From the way we respond to the Coronavirus Pandemic to the way we treat the immigrants in our midst, all that we do reflects on our profession of faith and what those who are watching think about our God. 

The Bible has a lot to say about how we are to treat foreigners and immigrants. Here are just a few:

Leviticus 19:33-34
When a stranger sojourns with you in your land, you shall not do him wrong. You shall treat the stranger who sojourns with you as the native among you, and you shall love him as yourself, for you were strangers in the land of Egypt: I am the LORD your God.

Hebrews 13:2
Do not neglect to show hospitality to strangers, for thereby some have entertained angels unawares.

How are we doing in this regard? Are we living up to our responsibilities as a nation? As a church? As individual Christians? The plight of immigrants, both documented and undocumented, has been much in the news lately because many of them have disproportionately borne the brunt of the economic fallout due to the pandemic. As I have mentioned before, many immigrants are employed in low-wage jobs in the hospitality industry, fast-food restaurants, as custodial workers, and on farms and in meat-packing plants. We depend upon them every day to live our lives and any return to normalcy post-pandemic requires those very immigrants to resume doing those jobs. The problem is, they're being chased away, forced to return to places where they risk being beaten, tortured, or murdered. Their applications for political asylum, for Green Cards, for permanent residency, and even for naturalization are on hold. 

This is not unusual for America. We always look for someone to blame whenever things aren't going well for us. The pandemic? Well, that's China's fault. Only it isn't. Unemployment? That's because all those immigrants are stealing our high-wage jobs. Only they're not. Often, they're doing the jobs many Americans refuse to do, like sweating in the hot sun all day building apartments, homes, and businesses with air-conditioning for us to live and work in comfort. Or, picking the fruits and vegetables we put on our dinner tables at night while they go hungry because they are not eligible for state or federal assistance. Or, slaughtering the animals for the steaks, hamburgers, and chicken dishes we enjoy so much, while Covid-19 runs rampant through their factories and budget apartment complexes. 

Perhaps we should listen to what the Bible tells us about how we treat the sojourner in our midst. Perhaps it is time to recognize that immigrants, whether documented or not, are not the enemy. They are our friends, our neighbors, our handyman/gardener, our butchers, our janitors, and our waiters/waitresses. They are us and we are them. It is time we stand together as one America. We are a land of immigrants and unless you are pure native American, you are an immigrant as well. This land is not your land and it is not my land. It is not even our land. It is God's land and we are all just sojourners together. 

I'll leave you with just one more verse of Scripture from a favorite passage of mine:

Micah 6:8

He has told you, O man, what is good; and what does the LORD require of you, but to do justice, and to love kindness, and to walk humbly with your God?

Justice, kindness, and humility...how are we doing?

The Coronavirus Pandemic: A New Excuse for Banning Immigration?

A pattern seems to be emerging as a result of the Coronavirus Pandemic, one that allows President Trump and his allies on the right to implement much of their agenda without serious objection from the left. In recent weeks, the Trump Administration has rolled back environmental protections, canceled naturalization services for Green Card holders, sped up confirmation hearings for Trump's judicial nominees, blamed China for spreading the Novel Coronavirus, floated more tax cuts for the rich, and, of course, his much talked about executive order banning almost all immigration into the United States. This last one has far more insidious effects than one might believe, even if one agrees that halting immigration from outside the country during the crisis might be a prudent step to prevent infected persons from bringing the disease into areas not currently suffering outbreaks.

U.S. Customs and Immigration Service (USCIS) offices are currently closed to the public, which delays or prevents alien residents attempting to obtain permanent resident status from doing so. One reason this has been problematic during the current crisis is that the economic downturn has hurt those who have temporary permits or work visas much more disproportionately than it has 'regular' American citizens. A large portion of legal immigrants works in the hospitality industry, especially where I live in Orlando, FL. The shutdown of the Walt Disney World Resort, Universal Resort, and most area hotels and restaurants has left these individuals scrambling to make ends meet or leave the country. Because they have not been granted their Green Cards or been naturalized, they are not eligible for any assistance from the state or federal government due to losing their jobs.

Of course, another problem for major companies such as Disney and Universal when the time comes to resume operations will be replacing cast members and employees who were forced to go elsewhere to find work so they could support their families. The companies will need to invest heavily in training new hires or retraining workers from other areas before they can resume full operations. For Disney, the immediate impact will be felt in the cultural program for the EPCOT World Showcase countries, bus transportation, and housekeeping. Universal may have the most difficult time filling housekeeping and janitorial positions, though the company may be better suited in the long-term because it is still paying its full-time workers 80% of their pre-furlough wages. Disney's furloughed workers must rely on Florida's broken unemployment system like the hard-working Floridians who were laid off before them. Like many furloughed cast members, my application has been in pending status for three weeks.

The bottom line is that if the Trump Administration really wants to make America great again, it needs to process immigrant applications for Green Cards and refugee/asylum residence. It needs to act now to ensure these workers, who are often performing jobs that many Americans will not or do not want to do (like cleaning up after tourists...you should hear the stories!), will be ready and able to return to their full-time jobs as soon as their employers are able to resume normal operations. The time has come to respect those who have come here legally to obtain a share of the American Dream. As Emma Lazarus wrote:

Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,

With conquering limbs astride from land to land;

Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand

A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame

Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name

Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand

Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command

The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

“Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!” cries she

With silent lips. “Give me your tired, your poor,

Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,

The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.

Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,

I lift my lamp beside the golden door!”

They have come, they have worked hard, they have yearned to breathe free. Now it is time for our country to live up to its end of the bargain. The world is watching us and it will not forget what we do next. The choice to live up to our ideals is ours. Or we can simply act as hypocrites and forsake the moral authority to lead the world for generations to come.

Is President Trump Really Losing the 2020 Election? State of the Race May 2020

Away They Go!

The great horse racing caller Trevor Denman started his call of every race with the words 'Away they go' to indicate the horses had broken from the starting gate. As the calendar has changed from April to May, I can almost hear those words as the media here in the United States begins its incessant focus on polls, polls, and more polls. Political scientists refer to this as coverage of the horse race. Who is ahead? Who is behind? What strategy will work best for the leader to hang on to his lead until November 3rd? What should the trailing candidate do to make up the ground between him and the leader?  This kind of journalistic coverage of campaigns is not without consequence, as this report shows. In sum, WHO the press talks about matters as much, if not more, than WHAT the press talks about. 

That very fact is one of the reasons President Trump was so eager to hold nightly 'briefings' on the Coronavirus Pandemic from the White House, even if they were often little more than thinly-veiled campaign rallies meant to let his supporters know that he was a doing a 'great' job, that the administration's efforts to fight the pandemic have been a 'great success', and that the world was amazed by how wonderful our testing capacity is. It matters not whether any of these statements are true or false. What matters is getting them televised and broadcast to his supporters. The 'Bully Pulpit' is a wonderful thing...except when it is not. There is some evidence that the president's inability to focus on the facts and penchant for saying bizarre things, such as injecting disinfectant or light/heat into the body, may be dragging down his poll numbers.  

On the other side of the race is the presumptive Democratic nominee, former Vice-President Joe Biden. While Biden has been relatively quiet since all but securing the nomination on Super Tuesday way back in the Before Times (March 2020), he has held 'virtual rallies' and delivered speeches from his basement in Delaware. In addition, Biden has faced allegations that he sexually harassed a staffer some 25+ years ago while he was a U.S. Senator. Both his campaign and Mr. Biden have vigorously and repeatedly denied the allegations, most recently in a Morning Joe interview with Mika Brzezinski on May 1, 2020.



Whether he is lying or telling the truth may never be known. The accuser's story seems to change regularly with new details added or 'clarifications' made about what she alleged at the time. Nobody who worked for Biden at the time has recalled anything about her claims. Of course, this does not mean they are untrue. It only means they cannot be validated or verified, just as the claims made by Christine Blasey Ford against (now) Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh could not be validated or verified. Most people will choose to believe what they want to based on their political preferences in cases such as these. The question here is how will these events affect the 'horse race'?

State of the Race-May 2020

As we enter May and (hopefully) the Coronavirus Pandemic begins to wind down, the country will return to some semblance of normality. The campaigns will fire up, the parties will hold their respective conventions, and celebrate their nominees, etc. Eventually, Americans will go to the polls (or mail in their ballots) in November and choose the next President of the United States. Will Donald Trump secure a second four-year term or will Joe Biden be elected as the 46th President of the United States. It is very difficult to predict six months out from election day, especially given the strange circumstances of 2020. The one sure thing is that the media will talk about the ongoing horse race every single day. 

Currently, the polls show Joe Biden with a good lead in many critical states, such as Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. If he wins those three and all states won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, Joe Biden will be the next president. In a normal year, Biden would be campaigning heavily in those three states but he may not be able to do so if the pandemic lasts through the summer or returns in early fall. Biden also has a clear lead in most of the national polls conducted over the past few months, which tend to be more or less reflective of the eventual outcome in November (within a few percentage points). The only poll that has Trump tied or in the lead is a Fox News Poll conducted the first weekend of April. 

One caveat must be mentioned regarding the polls at this point. First, it is way too early to assume that voters' attitudes will not shift between now and November. Sure, fierce partisans are set in stone, which means most Republicans will support President Trump and most Democrats will support Joe Biden. The swing voters that gravitated to Trump four years ago may be the key to the election in 2020, which is why paying close attention to quality polling in the key swing states may provide a clue to what will happen in November.

Additionally, the state of the economy will make a huge difference for the president. Americans tend to vote with their wallets or pocketbooks. If they are hurting when it comes time to vote, Trump will be in deep trouble. As of this writing, 30 million Americans have lost their jobs since the beginning of March. While some are beginning to return to work, it will be a slow, drawn-out process to get all those people back to full employment. There is a real possibility that some businesses, especially ones that were just getting by when the closures began, may never reopen. The nation went from a very low rate of unemployment at the end of the longest peacetime recovery in American history (2010-2020) to what could amount to an unemployment rate in excess of 20% in just 60 days. The preliminary data for March reflect a loss of 701,000 jobs during the month. April data will be forthcoming on May 8, 2020. When President Trump took office in January 2017, the unemployment rate was 4.7%. By February of 2020, the rate had fallen to 3.5%. What will the rate be in November? It may not matter as the perception of the economy will be formed during the next few months. President George H.W. Bush learned this the hard way back in 1992. Even though the economy had largely recovered from a minor recession early in the year, he was turned out of office after a single term. 

If President Trump wins re-election in November, it will mark the first time in U.S. History that four successive presidents have been awarded two terms in office. Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and James Monroe each served two terms from 1801-1825. Likewise, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama served two terms from 1993-2017. Are we once again about to witness a one-term presidency?

The Political Science Models

Helmut Norpoth typically puts out his model predicting control of the White House around April 1 of each election year. This year's model (based on polls conducted prior to April 1) predicts President Trump has a 91% chance of re-election. Importantly though, Norpoth included a disclaimer that allows him to revise the model should future polling show a crack in Trump's support. It seems as though he wishes to hedge his bets given the Coronavirus Pandemic. 

The three models that base their projections on current polling each show the Democratic nominee with an advantage. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has the Democrats with 248 Electoral Votes to Trump's 233 Electoral Votes, leaving 57 Electoral Votes up for grabs. Charlie Cook's model has the Democrats with 232 votes to Trump's 204 votes, leaving 102 votes up for grabs. Finally, the Inside Elections model has the Democrats leading Trump by 268-204, with 66 votes undecided. 

Finally, Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist with a strong track record of accurately predicting election results, foresees a very close election that will likely hang on two factors. First, whether a recession occurs during the 2nd quarter of 2020, which is very likely given the data mentioned above. Second, it depends on whether voters will blame President Trump or the Coronavirus for the recession, or some combination of the two that attributes Trump's missteps regarding handling the pandemic to exacerbating the economic pain. The latter would result in the worst-case scenario for Trump and could produce a landslide defeat at the hands of Joe Biden. Supposing real GDP in the 2nd quarter declines by 3% (some analysts believe it could drop by 26% or more) and a net Trump approval rating of -10 (approval minus disapproval), Trump would secure only 184 Electoral Votes to Joe Biden's 354. Apart from one recent Gallup Poll in mid-April, Trump's net approval rating has hovered between -5 and -10 percentage points. Either scenario coupled with a disastrous recession could spell doom for the president. Keep in mind, however, that polls are only snapshots in time. They reflect the current mood of voters who are unlikely to be thinking about the election until a pollster asks them to do so. 

That's it for now. We'll be back with an update next month. Until then, stay safe and healthy!