Pandemic Politics: Memorial Day 2020 and the Embarrassment of a Nation

While Memorial Day marks the first unofficial day of summer for much of America, it is also a somber day. It is a day to thank those who gave the ultimate sacrifice in service to their country. Originally, it applied to those in military service and that is still its primary meaning. However, we also remember those who have given their lives for their country and their communities through public service as police, firefighters, and, due to this pandemic, frontline medical professionals. I hope you will take a moment to remember those we have lost and those who gave all they had that we might be free.

This Memorial Day seems different than those in the past for many reasons. First, we are in the midst of a global pandemic, unlike anything any of us have ever experienced. The unofficial data from Johns Hopkins University reports nearly 1,650,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States and nearly 98,000 deaths. We will top 100,000 deaths sometime on May 26, 2020 and there is no end in sight. The numbers of new cases are not falling, contrary to the president's claim. We are still reporting 20,000+ new cases every single day. On a positive note, the death rate seems to be declining, possibly due to the lockdown of long-term care facilities and the hesitation of elderly citizens and those with co-morbidity issues to venture into public places. Nevertheless, America leads the world in both the number of cases and the number of deaths. A sad statistic to be number one in, especially since our president promised us he had the virus under control and it was nothing to worry about. Right.

Remember what the president said back in March? It's Memorial Day, don't forget it. Here's a reminder:

March 10: “And it hit the world. And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”
 
March 11: “I think we’re going to get through it very well.”
 
March 12: “It’s going to go away. ... The United States, because of what I did and what the administration did with China, we have 32 deaths at this point … when you look at the kind of numbers that you’re seeing coming out of other countries, it’s pretty amazing when you think of it.”

The president clearly has a different definition of doing a great job than I do. If I promised my employer that something wouldn't be a problem and 100,000+ people died in just over two months, I wouldn't have my job and I might be held criminally liable. Not this president. In fact, when asked if he felt any responsibility due to his downplaying of the pandemic, he made up another lie and claimed he always thought it was a pandemic, way before anyone else thought it was a pandemic. If so, Mr. President, why did you tell us it was nothing to worry about? That, of course, is the problem with pathological liars. They lie so frequently that they do not even know what they lied about yesterday so why not just make up something new today. And his gullible supporters will excuse and defend him while trying to deflect blame onto the media, the Democrats, the Chinese, the WHO, or whoever else they can. 

Take these retweets from the president this weekend meant to distract from the horrible job he is doing a president:

About Stacy Abrams (African-American candidate for GA governor):

“We just got a look at the official portrait for the self-proclaimed Governor of Georgia. She fought a tough race, kissed a lot of babies, and visited every buffet restaurant in the state. Joe will be a racist if he doesn’t pick her.”


About Nancy Pelosi:

“Anyone know what’s going on with PolyGrip? I’ve noticed lately that her face seems glossy and she is sporting a poorly marked 2nd set of eyebrows,"

In a second tweet attacking Pelosi’s appearance that appeared on Trump’s Twitter feed over the weekend, Stahl took a shot at the Speaker’s teeth, claiming she wore dentures, and wrote that she drank alcohol “on the job.”

About Hillary Clinton:

Another post from Stahl that Trump retweeted referred to Clinton, who ran against Trump in the 2016 presidential election, as “HRC the Skank.”

This is racist and misogynistic language that should be beneath the President of the United States. Once again, Mr. Trump has disgraced himself, the office of the president, the American people, and our nation. When will someone stand up to this bully and say enough is enough? Why do we tolerate from the president what we would never tolerate from our friends and family members? Any employer would be justified to fire such an individual. It is time for America to fire its president.

I expect more from the President of the United States than a pack of lies each day. I expect more from him than demeaning attacks on those he disagrees with politically. Yes, I know I will be sorely disappointed by expecting anything resembling presidential leadership from this president. I know he will never tell the truth nor will he admit to getting it wrong. He simply cannot accept the fact that he, like the rest of us, is a fallible, sinful human being who does not have all the answers. This is why I vehemently opposed his candidacy in 2015-16 and his election in 2016. This is why, as a lifelong Republican, I am in the Never Trump camp. I long for a president that is willing to work with those with whom he disagrees. Give me Ronald Reagan (tax reform and Social Security reform with a Democratic Congress), give me George H.W. Bush (the Americans with Disabilities Act and deficit reduction w/ a Democratic Congress), give me Bill Clinton (Welfare reform w/ a Republican Congress), give me George W. Bush (education reform, children's health insurance w/ a Democratic Congress), and give me Barack Obama (education reform w/ a Republican Congress). 

I'd love to put Donald Trump on that list but I cannot think of one piece of bipartisan legislation he has promoted or signed (other than the three Coronavirus acts, which any president would have signed). What has President Trump done to reach across the aisle and work with the opposition to accomplish something for Americans? Nothing. Sure, he signed the Republican tax cuts in 2017 that blew up our deficit and gave trillions of dollars back to wealthy supporters while middle-class folks got $6 a week in their paychecks. At least I could afford a second Starbucks white chocolate mocha each week. Thanks, Donald. 

So, on this Memorial Day, think of all we have lost and all you have to be thankful for. Tell those special people in your life that you care about them. Treat strangers with kindness and courtesy. Reach out to those with whom you disagree and be reconciled. They will not be here forever. Use the fierce urgency of now to be a peacemaker, a humble soul, and an all-around better human being. Don't look to the president for guidance because you will not find it there. Look to 'our better angels' as a great president once said. Look at the man in the mirror and make that change. 

Only then will God Bless this great country that so many have fled to as their only hope of light in a darkened world.

Pandemic Politics and the Plight of Immigrants

A friend of mine recently told me that her dad always considered the United States the greatest country on earth. It was the land of the free, the home of the brave, and a place many immigrants longed to come to in search of a better life. For nearly the first 150 years of our existence as a nation, all were welcome. While sailing for the New World back in 1630, John Winthrop said that the eyes of the world would always be upon America and 'that we shall be as a city upon a hill....' Those words were repeated by John F. Kennedy shortly before his inauguration in 1961 and 28 years later by President Ronald Reagan in his farewell address to the nation he loved.


The reference to a 'city on a hill' is biblical and found in Matthew chapter 5:14-16. It reads as follows:

14 “You are the light of the world. A city set on a hill cannot be hidden. 15 Nor do people light a lamp and put it under a basket, but on a stand, and it gives light to all in the house. 16 In the same way, let your light shine before others, so that they may see your good works and give glory to your Father who is in heaven.

The purpose of this passage is to show the world the good works we do and let them give glory to God because of them. Now is the time for Christians in America and elsewhere to live up to these words and let their light shine before men. Now is the time for America to be that shining city set upon a hill. From the way we respond to the Coronavirus Pandemic to the way we treat the immigrants in our midst, all that we do reflects on our profession of faith and what those who are watching think about our God. 

The Bible has a lot to say about how we are to treat foreigners and immigrants. Here are just a few:

Leviticus 19:33-34
When a stranger sojourns with you in your land, you shall not do him wrong. You shall treat the stranger who sojourns with you as the native among you, and you shall love him as yourself, for you were strangers in the land of Egypt: I am the LORD your God.

Hebrews 13:2
Do not neglect to show hospitality to strangers, for thereby some have entertained angels unawares.

How are we doing in this regard? Are we living up to our responsibilities as a nation? As a church? As individual Christians? The plight of immigrants, both documented and undocumented, has been much in the news lately because many of them have disproportionately borne the brunt of the economic fallout due to the pandemic. As I have mentioned before, many immigrants are employed in low-wage jobs in the hospitality industry, fast-food restaurants, as custodial workers, and on farms and in meat-packing plants. We depend upon them every day to live our lives and any return to normalcy post-pandemic requires those very immigrants to resume doing those jobs. The problem is, they're being chased away, forced to return to places where they risk being beaten, tortured, or murdered. Their applications for political asylum, for Green Cards, for permanent residency, and even for naturalization are on hold. 

This is not unusual for America. We always look for someone to blame whenever things aren't going well for us. The pandemic? Well, that's China's fault. Only it isn't. Unemployment? That's because all those immigrants are stealing our high-wage jobs. Only they're not. Often, they're doing the jobs many Americans refuse to do, like sweating in the hot sun all day building apartments, homes, and businesses with air-conditioning for us to live and work in comfort. Or, picking the fruits and vegetables we put on our dinner tables at night while they go hungry because they are not eligible for state or federal assistance. Or, slaughtering the animals for the steaks, hamburgers, and chicken dishes we enjoy so much, while Covid-19 runs rampant through their factories and budget apartment complexes. 

Perhaps we should listen to what the Bible tells us about how we treat the sojourner in our midst. Perhaps it is time to recognize that immigrants, whether documented or not, are not the enemy. They are our friends, our neighbors, our handyman/gardener, our butchers, our janitors, and our waiters/waitresses. They are us and we are them. It is time we stand together as one America. We are a land of immigrants and unless you are pure native American, you are an immigrant as well. This land is not your land and it is not my land. It is not even our land. It is God's land and we are all just sojourners together. 

I'll leave you with just one more verse of Scripture from a favorite passage of mine:

Micah 6:8

He has told you, O man, what is good; and what does the LORD require of you, but to do justice, and to love kindness, and to walk humbly with your God?

Justice, kindness, and humility...how are we doing?

The Coronavirus Pandemic: A New Excuse for Banning Immigration?

A pattern seems to be emerging as a result of the Coronavirus Pandemic, one that allows President Trump and his allies on the right to implement much of their agenda without serious objection from the left. In recent weeks, the Trump Administration has rolled back environmental protections, canceled naturalization services for Green Card holders, sped up confirmation hearings for Trump's judicial nominees, blamed China for spreading the Novel Coronavirus, floated more tax cuts for the rich, and, of course, his much talked about executive order banning almost all immigration into the United States. This last one has far more insidious effects than one might believe, even if one agrees that halting immigration from outside the country during the crisis might be a prudent step to prevent infected persons from bringing the disease into areas not currently suffering outbreaks.

U.S. Customs and Immigration Service (USCIS) offices are currently closed to the public, which delays or prevents alien residents attempting to obtain permanent resident status from doing so. One reason this has been problematic during the current crisis is that the economic downturn has hurt those who have temporary permits or work visas much more disproportionately than it has 'regular' American citizens. A large portion of legal immigrants works in the hospitality industry, especially where I live in Orlando, FL. The shutdown of the Walt Disney World Resort, Universal Resort, and most area hotels and restaurants has left these individuals scrambling to make ends meet or leave the country. Because they have not been granted their Green Cards or been naturalized, they are not eligible for any assistance from the state or federal government due to losing their jobs.

Of course, another problem for major companies such as Disney and Universal when the time comes to resume operations will be replacing cast members and employees who were forced to go elsewhere to find work so they could support their families. The companies will need to invest heavily in training new hires or retraining workers from other areas before they can resume full operations. For Disney, the immediate impact will be felt in the cultural program for the EPCOT World Showcase countries, bus transportation, and housekeeping. Universal may have the most difficult time filling housekeeping and janitorial positions, though the company may be better suited in the long-term because it is still paying its full-time workers 80% of their pre-furlough wages. Disney's furloughed workers must rely on Florida's broken unemployment system like the hard-working Floridians who were laid off before them. Like many furloughed cast members, my application has been in pending status for three weeks.

The bottom line is that if the Trump Administration really wants to make America great again, it needs to process immigrant applications for Green Cards and refugee/asylum residence. It needs to act now to ensure these workers, who are often performing jobs that many Americans will not or do not want to do (like cleaning up after tourists...you should hear the stories!), will be ready and able to return to their full-time jobs as soon as their employers are able to resume normal operations. The time has come to respect those who have come here legally to obtain a share of the American Dream. As Emma Lazarus wrote:

Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,

With conquering limbs astride from land to land;

Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand

A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame

Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name

Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand

Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command

The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

“Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!” cries she

With silent lips. “Give me your tired, your poor,

Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,

The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.

Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,

I lift my lamp beside the golden door!”

They have come, they have worked hard, they have yearned to breathe free. Now it is time for our country to live up to its end of the bargain. The world is watching us and it will not forget what we do next. The choice to live up to our ideals is ours. Or we can simply act as hypocrites and forsake the moral authority to lead the world for generations to come.

Is President Trump Really Losing the 2020 Election? State of the Race May 2020

Away They Go!

The great horse racing caller Trevor Denman started his call of every race with the words 'Away they go' to indicate the horses had broken from the starting gate. As the calendar has changed from April to May, I can almost hear those words as the media here in the United States begins its incessant focus on polls, polls, and more polls. Political scientists refer to this as coverage of the horse race. Who is ahead? Who is behind? What strategy will work best for the leader to hang on to his lead until November 3rd? What should the trailing candidate do to make up the ground between him and the leader?  This kind of journalistic coverage of campaigns is not without consequence, as this report shows. In sum, WHO the press talks about matters as much, if not more, than WHAT the press talks about. 

That very fact is one of the reasons President Trump was so eager to hold nightly 'briefings' on the Coronavirus Pandemic from the White House, even if they were often little more than thinly-veiled campaign rallies meant to let his supporters know that he was a doing a 'great' job, that the administration's efforts to fight the pandemic have been a 'great success', and that the world was amazed by how wonderful our testing capacity is. It matters not whether any of these statements are true or false. What matters is getting them televised and broadcast to his supporters. The 'Bully Pulpit' is a wonderful thing...except when it is not. There is some evidence that the president's inability to focus on the facts and penchant for saying bizarre things, such as injecting disinfectant or light/heat into the body, may be dragging down his poll numbers.  

On the other side of the race is the presumptive Democratic nominee, former Vice-President Joe Biden. While Biden has been relatively quiet since all but securing the nomination on Super Tuesday way back in the Before Times (March 2020), he has held 'virtual rallies' and delivered speeches from his basement in Delaware. In addition, Biden has faced allegations that he sexually harassed a staffer some 25+ years ago while he was a U.S. Senator. Both his campaign and Mr. Biden have vigorously and repeatedly denied the allegations, most recently in a Morning Joe interview with Mika Brzezinski on May 1, 2020.



Whether he is lying or telling the truth may never be known. The accuser's story seems to change regularly with new details added or 'clarifications' made about what she alleged at the time. Nobody who worked for Biden at the time has recalled anything about her claims. Of course, this does not mean they are untrue. It only means they cannot be validated or verified, just as the claims made by Christine Blasey Ford against (now) Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh could not be validated or verified. Most people will choose to believe what they want to based on their political preferences in cases such as these. The question here is how will these events affect the 'horse race'?

State of the Race-May 2020

As we enter May and (hopefully) the Coronavirus Pandemic begins to wind down, the country will return to some semblance of normality. The campaigns will fire up, the parties will hold their respective conventions, and celebrate their nominees, etc. Eventually, Americans will go to the polls (or mail in their ballots) in November and choose the next President of the United States. Will Donald Trump secure a second four-year term or will Joe Biden be elected as the 46th President of the United States. It is very difficult to predict six months out from election day, especially given the strange circumstances of 2020. The one sure thing is that the media will talk about the ongoing horse race every single day. 

Currently, the polls show Joe Biden with a good lead in many critical states, such as Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. If he wins those three and all states won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, Joe Biden will be the next president. In a normal year, Biden would be campaigning heavily in those three states but he may not be able to do so if the pandemic lasts through the summer or returns in early fall. Biden also has a clear lead in most of the national polls conducted over the past few months, which tend to be more or less reflective of the eventual outcome in November (within a few percentage points). The only poll that has Trump tied or in the lead is a Fox News Poll conducted the first weekend of April. 

One caveat must be mentioned regarding the polls at this point. First, it is way too early to assume that voters' attitudes will not shift between now and November. Sure, fierce partisans are set in stone, which means most Republicans will support President Trump and most Democrats will support Joe Biden. The swing voters that gravitated to Trump four years ago may be the key to the election in 2020, which is why paying close attention to quality polling in the key swing states may provide a clue to what will happen in November.

Additionally, the state of the economy will make a huge difference for the president. Americans tend to vote with their wallets or pocketbooks. If they are hurting when it comes time to vote, Trump will be in deep trouble. As of this writing, 30 million Americans have lost their jobs since the beginning of March. While some are beginning to return to work, it will be a slow, drawn-out process to get all those people back to full employment. There is a real possibility that some businesses, especially ones that were just getting by when the closures began, may never reopen. The nation went from a very low rate of unemployment at the end of the longest peacetime recovery in American history (2010-2020) to what could amount to an unemployment rate in excess of 20% in just 60 days. The preliminary data for March reflect a loss of 701,000 jobs during the month. April data will be forthcoming on May 8, 2020. When President Trump took office in January 2017, the unemployment rate was 4.7%. By February of 2020, the rate had fallen to 3.5%. What will the rate be in November? It may not matter as the perception of the economy will be formed during the next few months. President George H.W. Bush learned this the hard way back in 1992. Even though the economy had largely recovered from a minor recession early in the year, he was turned out of office after a single term. 

If President Trump wins re-election in November, it will mark the first time in U.S. History that four successive presidents have been awarded two terms in office. Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and James Monroe each served two terms from 1801-1825. Likewise, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama served two terms from 1993-2017. Are we once again about to witness a one-term presidency?

The Political Science Models

Helmut Norpoth typically puts out his model predicting control of the White House around April 1 of each election year. This year's model (based on polls conducted prior to April 1) predicts President Trump has a 91% chance of re-election. Importantly though, Norpoth included a disclaimer that allows him to revise the model should future polling show a crack in Trump's support. It seems as though he wishes to hedge his bets given the Coronavirus Pandemic. 

The three models that base their projections on current polling each show the Democratic nominee with an advantage. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has the Democrats with 248 Electoral Votes to Trump's 233 Electoral Votes, leaving 57 Electoral Votes up for grabs. Charlie Cook's model has the Democrats with 232 votes to Trump's 204 votes, leaving 102 votes up for grabs. Finally, the Inside Elections model has the Democrats leading Trump by 268-204, with 66 votes undecided. 

Finally, Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist with a strong track record of accurately predicting election results, foresees a very close election that will likely hang on two factors. First, whether a recession occurs during the 2nd quarter of 2020, which is very likely given the data mentioned above. Second, it depends on whether voters will blame President Trump or the Coronavirus for the recession, or some combination of the two that attributes Trump's missteps regarding handling the pandemic to exacerbating the economic pain. The latter would result in the worst-case scenario for Trump and could produce a landslide defeat at the hands of Joe Biden. Supposing real GDP in the 2nd quarter declines by 3% (some analysts believe it could drop by 26% or more) and a net Trump approval rating of -10 (approval minus disapproval), Trump would secure only 184 Electoral Votes to Joe Biden's 354. Apart from one recent Gallup Poll in mid-April, Trump's net approval rating has hovered between -5 and -10 percentage points. Either scenario coupled with a disastrous recession could spell doom for the president. Keep in mind, however, that polls are only snapshots in time. They reflect the current mood of voters who are unlikely to be thinking about the election until a pollster asks them to do so. 

That's it for now. We'll be back with an update next month. Until then, stay safe and healthy!