As we approach the six-month mark of Donald Trump's second term, it seemed like a good idea to create an objective evaluation of the administration's successes and failures. Obviously, this is a difficult task in our hyper-partisan political environment. There seems to be no middle ground when it comes to Donald Trump and his administration. He is either loved by his supporters or loathed by his opponents. Trying to be impartial is nearly a fool's gambit, but that won't stop me from trying. That said, let's get started.
Unemployment
President Trump has accomplished much in his second term, though whether those accomplishments are considered successes or failures is probably a matter of which side of the aisle one aligns with these days. Let's begin with a look at the economy. We'll start with the unemployment rate, which is defined as the percentage of working age adults who are underemployed (i.e., part-time seeking full-time work) or unemployed and actively seeking a full-time job. When Donald Trump was sworn in on January 20, 2025, the unemployment rate was 4.0%, which is considered near full employment by most economists. If the rate falls much below that, it can put upward pressure on wages, which leads to higher prices. On the other hand, if the rate rises above 5%, it may indicate a recession or some other problem in the economy. As of July 12, the unemployment rate is virtually unchanged since President Trump took office and currently sits at 4.1%. In comparison, when Joe Biden took office in January 2021, the unemployment rate was 6.4% (primarily lingering effects of COVID-19 shutdowns) and fell to 5.9% by July 2021. It would continue to fall until bottoming out at 3.4% in April 2023, the lowest unemployment rate in more than a decade. During Trump's first term, the rate fell to 3.5% in February 2020 before the pandemic took hold. It climbed as high as 14.8% before settling back down and beginning a steady decline by late fall 2020. The chart below shows the unemployment rate since January 2024.
Job growth in the first six months of Trump's second term has been steady rather than spectacular. The economy has added about 782,000 jobs since January. That's just enough to keep the unemployment rate steady, but not enough to see significant declines in the rate. In comparison, during Trump's first six months in 2017, the economy added 1.174 million jobs, continuing the growth that started under President Obama.
Interest Rates
Interest rates have remained stubbornly high over the past few years, though still below the historical average of 7.71% since 1971. Nevertheless, with rates between four and six percent for more than a decade, an average mortgage rate of 6.67% (as of July 2025) seems quite high, especially given the steep increase in the cost of housing since the end of the Great Recession (2007-2010). Every 1% increase in mortgage rates adds hundreds of dollars in interest each month to a mortgage, which makes home ownership less affordable. It also makes it difficult for those who want to sell an existing home to upsize or downsize, which can lead to an even tighter housing market. The mortgage rate market has seen little change in the past six months, though some analysts expect rates to drop by the end of the year and throughout 2026.
Oil Prices
I love talking about oil prices, especially since I lease two electric cars and haven't been to a gas station in a very long time. Both cars cost me a combined total of about $50 a month (or less) in electricity to operate. I'm not going to get into the politics of electric cars except to say I am happy not to be setting fire to my money buying fossil fuels that burn up upon use and go into the atmosphere.
On the campaign trail last year, President Trump often touted the fact that oil prices were briefly negative during his first term. What he didn't say is that was a result of the global shutdown during the pandemic. It is really quite simply a supply and demand equation. Too much supply and little demand equals low prices. Too much demand and not enough supply equals high prices. Presidents do not have the direct ability to alter either part of that equation. Yes, policies can be enacted that encourage or subsidize one energy source over another, but consumers still have to make choices. Right now, U.S. policy favors the production of fossil fuels through tax subsidies and deductions, which makes gas prices artificially low. Costs such as environmental cleanup, health issues arising from breathing dirty air, etc., are passed on to the taxpayers, leading to higher taxes, toxic waste dumps, and dirtier air/water.
As of July 12, crude oil prices on the market range from $68.55 a barrel (West Texas crude) to $71.23 a barrel (OPEC). A popular myth is that drilling for more oil in the U.S. and off our coasts will lower oil prices, and, consequently, gas prices. In theory, if oil were not traded on the market internationally, that might work. But it is so that doesn't work. Much of the oil produced in the U.S. is sold on the international market (the United States is among the top three oil producers, along with Saudi Arabia and Russia).
Anyway, all of this is to say that, barring another worldwide shutdown, oil prices are not going negative anytime soon. They also won't decline much unless the world experiences a major recession or worse. Another problem with declining oil prices is that the cost to produce 'black gold' is relatively fixed. If prices fall too much, producers cap their wells and lay off workers. Thus, oil prices are likely to continue to trade in a narrow range between the mid $60s and mid $70s, which means gas prices in the United States will remain where they are for the foreseeable future, with minor fluctuations during different driving seasons and for different fuel mixtures. The average price for a gallon of unleaded nationwide is $3.15 according to AAA. Southern oil producing states have the lowest average price between $2.71 and $3.01 a gallon, while the western states have the highest average prices between $3.30 (Utah) and $4.52 (CA).
The good news is that prices are virtually where they were in the summer of 2021. We haven't seen the customary spike in prices that accompany the summer driving season. That could be due to a variety of factors such as people driving less, more electric vehicles on the road (reducing demand for fossil fuels), and a stalled economy. Only time will tell.
Overall, assessing President Trump's handling of the economy during his first six months, I'd say he has earned a solid 'C', which is probably because his focus has been elsewhere. From the war in Ukraine, to Gaza, immigration, and tariffs, the president has been distracted. The effect of his 'Big, Beautiful Bill' remains to be seen, but one thing is certain...he used whatever political capital he had to get it through Congress. Just like in his first term (the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act), it may be the only major piece of legislation his administration gets through Congress. Midterm elections are just over a year away, and while Republicans are hoping to buck the trend of presidential parties losing seats in the House, if this bill causes economic pain, it may motivate the president's opponents to turn out en masse and check his power. That's a good thing, no matter which party holds the White House.
Next time: Immigration and Tariffs
Until then, be safe.
Professor Grumpy
