The race for the White House is in high gear now as we approach the first voting date of the year. Iowans will caucus on the evening of February 1st and make their preferences known for both the GOP and Democratic nominees. Twenty-one days out and what do we know? The short answer is 'not much.'
The Democratic Race
The polls are all over the board although some consistency is beginning to appear. On the Democratic side most polls show a tight race between Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Martin O'Malley polls a distant third in every poll. The question for longtime observers and political scientists like myself is whether the polls are valid indicators of preference at this point? Primary and caucus polling is generally less reliable than general election polling because voters are choosing between candidates within their own party rather than between parties. It is also much more difficult to know who will actually caucus or vote in a primary because many who indicate planning to vote actually do not.
Senator Sanders has shown a remarkable ability to raise money from small donations and has managed to keep pace with Hillary Clinton, though with a somewhat lower 'burn' rate (the rate at which the campaign spends its cash on hand). For the year, Sanders raised about $73 million compared to Clinton's $112 million. On the spending side, Sanders has spent about $45 million (61%) to Clinton's $74 million (66%). Though being outspent by nearly $29 million polls show Sanders in a virtual tie with Clinton in both Iowa and New Hampshire (which votes February 9th). What does it say about a front runner and presumptive nominee that has to spend a good portion of what she raises to stave off a challenge from America's only elected Democratic Socialist? A loss in Iowa would almost certainly lead to a loss in New Hampshire for Clinton, which would spell trouble for a candidate long presumed to be the Democratic standard bearer. Are we in for a repeat of 2008 with Sen. Sanders and Sec. Clinton trading wins in a long drawn out fight like the one she waged against then Sen. Barack Obama? If so, it will be fun to watch but probably a nightmare for the Democratic Party.
The Republican Race
One thing that can be said about the Republican race is that the polls have been remarkably consistent for quite some time. Unlike the previous two contests that featured outsider candidates rising to the top of the polls and then fading rapidly, Donald J. Trump has been first or second in nearly every poll since declaring his candidacy last June. No matter what outlandish statement he makes or who he insults his support remains constant. Sometimes it even grows stronger. Trump also has one advantage that no other candidate in the race has: he doesn't need to raise money and run ads. Trump is largely self-financing his campaign, which lends credibility to his statements about not being 'bought' by moneyed special interests. This appeals at a basic level to a significant portion of the GOP base that is fed up with candidates appealing to the elites in the party. In many ways, Trump's supporters see him as 'one of them' even though in reality they'll never own a private jet and bathe in a gold plated bathroom. Trump has done a good job appealing to the most base elements of his party. The question is whether they'll show up to vote in February?
Currently in second place in most of the polls of Iowa is Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). Cruz has been consistently gaining on Trump for the last month and a few recent polls show him either a few points ahead or in a statistical tie with Trump. Cruz's strengths are that he also appeals to the very conservative wing of his party, is seen as a relative outsider due to his opposition to most everything party leadership has wanted in Washington, and his fundraising has been strong. The downside for Cruz is that there simply isn't room enough in an extended nomination fight for both he and Trump. Something will give after the first few contests, though Cruz is looking strong in the southern portion of the Super Tuesday primaries labeled as the SEC primary that takes place on March 1st. As long as he does well in Iowa and South Carolina it's a good bet Cruz is in it for the long haul.
Finally, the typical mainstream moderately conservative Republicans. You know, the ones closer to Reagan than either Trump or Cruz. There seem to be four candidates in this group now, three who have served as governors in states that have voted Democratic in the last two presidential elections (Kasich-OH, Bush-FL, Christie-NJ) and Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL). All four are competing for the same spot, probably 3rd in Iowa and 2nd in New Hampshire. If one of the four can accomplish that he probably secures his position as the race moves to South Carolina and Nevada before the March primaries. The others, though Bush may be the exception due his large war chest, are likely to drop out shortly thereafter.
The fourth tier has no viable path to the nomination at this point. This includes Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson, Rand Paul, and Mike Huckabee. Fiorina and Carson enjoyed some nice polling bumps last fall but have since fallen back to nothing more than an afterthought. Dropping out of the race would benefit their party and add clarity to the race. For that reason alone I don't anticipate them going anywhere before Iowans vote.
The Bottom Line
Donald Trump has every reason to feel good going into the caucuses and primaries over the next six weeks, as does Ted Cruz. Hillary Clinton has good reason to be nervous and fear a repeat of 2008. Bernie Sanders has a shot if he wins both Iowa and New Hampshire. The establishment in the GOP has every reason to be terrified of either a Trump or Cruz nomination as either could tear the party apart in a way we haven't seen since Barry Goldwater secured the Republican nomination in 1964. The good news for the GOP is that it only took four years to emerge from the Goldwater debacle and it went on to win five of the next six presidential elections. On the flip side, a loss in 2016 will mean the party will have lost the popular vote for president in six of the last seven elections. That could be a harbinger of disaster given that the election is theirs to lose this year.
Showing posts with label Rubio. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rubio. Show all posts
Monday, January 11, 2016
Saturday, August 22, 2015
State of the Race August 22, 2015--Trumpamania Runnin' Wild!
Here we are in the latter part of August. The dog days of summer are upon us but the sun is moving southward. The days are growing shorter, the temperatures are getting cooler, and soon the winter of our discontent will be fully upon us.
At this point in the presidential nomination cycle all we have is speculation. Not a single vote has been cast for a single candidate. Yet, the press needs something to cover in order to drive viewers to their channels or readers to their newspapers. So why not manufacture a little sensationalism now and then? Why not talk about Donald Trump all day and all night? Why not lead Americans to think our borders are porous and hundreds, if not thousands, of illegal Mexican rapists are flooding across them every day? Why not speculate about how many laws Hillary Clinton may or may not have broken by using a private e-mail server when she was Secretary of State? After all, doing so leads more and more Americans to become disgusted with their government and lose confidence in its ability to address our problems. No, let's not talk about the good things government does or the real problems that need to be solved. That, dear friends, wouldn't secure viewers and readers. So let's focus on Trumpamania instead.
Will 'The Donald' be the eventual nominee of the Republican Party? I don't have the answer to that question but I suspect not. Donald Trump is a showman with an exuberant personality. Lots of people like that. He has a following from years of firing contestants on a reality show that he was paid millions of dollars to appear on. That gives him something that the majority of the other candidates in the Republican field do not have...name recognition. Presidential primary preference polls in August almost always reflect name recognition rather than voter preferences based on policy proposals. Four years ago the leading candidate in Iowa and in several national polls was...Michelle Bachmann. Remember how well her candidacy went? She dropped out after the first votes were cast. In 2007, Mitt Romney was leading in Iowa in August but Mike Huckabee won the caucus the following January. His campaign sputtered and died shortly thereafter. The last time Iowa actually mattered was 1999 when George W. Bush was leading and won the caucus. Of course, Bush was running a campaign with only one serious opponent, John McCain, whose campaign came to a screeching halt after the Bush campaign sponsored robocalls in South Carolina claiming McCain had fathered a black child. The point is, the polls right now are almost irrelevant. They tell us nothing about who might be the eventual Republican nominee, though they probably tell us more about who will not. The question is not whether Trump will be the nominee but who stands to gain as the field begins to shrink?
The latest CNN poll has Donald Trump at 24%, which means 76% of potential GOP voters selected somebody else as their first choice. There are two other candidates competing for the 'mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore' segment of the vote, Ben Carson and Ted Cruz. Together they are polling at 14%. Neither will be the Republican nominee. Earlier this week Carson suggested to CNN that it would be okay to use drones on the border to blow people away. Cruz cannot win because even Republicans don't like him. So, the question is whether the 14% these two are getting right now will go to Trump when they drop out of the race? I don't see that as very likely, which means Trump's support may well have peaked at 24%.
The rest of the field appeals to two or three segments of the GOP electorate. There is a very small libertarian contingent who support the now faltering campaign of Rand Paul, who polls at 6% in the latest poll. If Paul ends his bid early, Cruz or Carson might pick up a few of these voters but they are unlikely to embrace Trumpism. Cruz or Carson might also benefit from the failure of Mike Huckabee's campaign, which is mired at 4% right now. Huck's support is mostly drawn from white evangelicals who want a candidate that embodies their faith based principles. That candidate will not be the thrice divorced, four times bankrupt Donald Trump.
More business oriented Republicans also have a few choices in the GOP field. The top three candidates appealing to this segment are Fiorina (5%), Christie (3%), and perhaps Walker (8%). Of these three, Walker probably stands to gain the most when the other two close up shop and hope for cabinet posts. Fiorina is most realistically running for Secretary of Labor while Christie could aim for Attorney General depending upon who the eventual nominee ends up being.
That leaves us with the remaining three contenders, who are more or less establishment Republicans that are likely to appeal to the less extreme conservative segment of the electorate. Jeb Bush is the elephant in the party but he has a ton of baggage to overcome if he hopes to be the nominee. The single biggest obstacle is his last name. The last two presidents from the GOP were his brother George W. and his father. Republicans, and Americans as a whole, may just have had enough Bushes for awhile, especially given how disastrous the ending of George W. Bush's presidency ended up. Americans aren't likely to forget that the economy ended up in the worst recession since the 1930's under GW Bush, which is not to assign blame, though many Americans will associate that with GOP policies just as the Great Depression led to 20 years of dominance by FDR and Truman's Democrats. The latest poll has Jeb at 13% in second place, right where he has been since Trump entered the race. The other problem for Jeb is that he is competing in a similar space for support with Rubio (8%) and Kasich (5%), both of whom bring to the table all that Bush does but without his last name. Another establishment candidate picking up a couple points is Rick Perry (2%). So here's how it looks if we consider the support levels by category rather than by candidate.
Establishment 28%
Trumpamania 24%
Evangelical 18%
Business 16%
Other 14%
The race will begin to consolidate in the fall as candidates fail to raise financial support and make traction with potential voters. The question will be who stands to benefit? Apart from Trump, who doesn't need financial support, money will be a serious barrier preventing many of these candidates from making it to Iowa next February. We'll know a lot more by mid-October when the third quarter fundraising numbers are released. From what we know right now, Jeb is flush with cash between his campaign and the Super PACs supporting his candidacy. Perry is in deep trouble and all but out of the race. Walker is relying on Super PACs and 501(c)4 money (from the Koch organization) so he'll likely remain viable through Iowa. Cruz is banking on a strong showing in the SEC primary (8 southern states on March 1, 2016).
Overall, I think the Trump candidacy is more of a flirtation by disgruntled GOP voters than an Ashley Madison arranged affair. Little by little they will begin to see that the emperor has no clothes and they'll move on. Many will do what Republicans always do, which is fall in line behind the party's choice. Right now, I'd put my money on Bush, Rubio, or Kasich as the eventual nominee. I think Bush or Rubio will be somewhere on the GOP ticket, whether as the nominee or the VP candidate.
I'll update the rankings and information as we progress through the fall and get closer to the actual voting. For now, enjoy Trumpamania runnin' wild all over you!
At this point in the presidential nomination cycle all we have is speculation. Not a single vote has been cast for a single candidate. Yet, the press needs something to cover in order to drive viewers to their channels or readers to their newspapers. So why not manufacture a little sensationalism now and then? Why not talk about Donald Trump all day and all night? Why not lead Americans to think our borders are porous and hundreds, if not thousands, of illegal Mexican rapists are flooding across them every day? Why not speculate about how many laws Hillary Clinton may or may not have broken by using a private e-mail server when she was Secretary of State? After all, doing so leads more and more Americans to become disgusted with their government and lose confidence in its ability to address our problems. No, let's not talk about the good things government does or the real problems that need to be solved. That, dear friends, wouldn't secure viewers and readers. So let's focus on Trumpamania instead.
Will 'The Donald' be the eventual nominee of the Republican Party? I don't have the answer to that question but I suspect not. Donald Trump is a showman with an exuberant personality. Lots of people like that. He has a following from years of firing contestants on a reality show that he was paid millions of dollars to appear on. That gives him something that the majority of the other candidates in the Republican field do not have...name recognition. Presidential primary preference polls in August almost always reflect name recognition rather than voter preferences based on policy proposals. Four years ago the leading candidate in Iowa and in several national polls was...Michelle Bachmann. Remember how well her candidacy went? She dropped out after the first votes were cast. In 2007, Mitt Romney was leading in Iowa in August but Mike Huckabee won the caucus the following January. His campaign sputtered and died shortly thereafter. The last time Iowa actually mattered was 1999 when George W. Bush was leading and won the caucus. Of course, Bush was running a campaign with only one serious opponent, John McCain, whose campaign came to a screeching halt after the Bush campaign sponsored robocalls in South Carolina claiming McCain had fathered a black child. The point is, the polls right now are almost irrelevant. They tell us nothing about who might be the eventual Republican nominee, though they probably tell us more about who will not. The question is not whether Trump will be the nominee but who stands to gain as the field begins to shrink?
The latest CNN poll has Donald Trump at 24%, which means 76% of potential GOP voters selected somebody else as their first choice. There are two other candidates competing for the 'mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore' segment of the vote, Ben Carson and Ted Cruz. Together they are polling at 14%. Neither will be the Republican nominee. Earlier this week Carson suggested to CNN that it would be okay to use drones on the border to blow people away. Cruz cannot win because even Republicans don't like him. So, the question is whether the 14% these two are getting right now will go to Trump when they drop out of the race? I don't see that as very likely, which means Trump's support may well have peaked at 24%.
The rest of the field appeals to two or three segments of the GOP electorate. There is a very small libertarian contingent who support the now faltering campaign of Rand Paul, who polls at 6% in the latest poll. If Paul ends his bid early, Cruz or Carson might pick up a few of these voters but they are unlikely to embrace Trumpism. Cruz or Carson might also benefit from the failure of Mike Huckabee's campaign, which is mired at 4% right now. Huck's support is mostly drawn from white evangelicals who want a candidate that embodies their faith based principles. That candidate will not be the thrice divorced, four times bankrupt Donald Trump.
More business oriented Republicans also have a few choices in the GOP field. The top three candidates appealing to this segment are Fiorina (5%), Christie (3%), and perhaps Walker (8%). Of these three, Walker probably stands to gain the most when the other two close up shop and hope for cabinet posts. Fiorina is most realistically running for Secretary of Labor while Christie could aim for Attorney General depending upon who the eventual nominee ends up being.
That leaves us with the remaining three contenders, who are more or less establishment Republicans that are likely to appeal to the less extreme conservative segment of the electorate. Jeb Bush is the elephant in the party but he has a ton of baggage to overcome if he hopes to be the nominee. The single biggest obstacle is his last name. The last two presidents from the GOP were his brother George W. and his father. Republicans, and Americans as a whole, may just have had enough Bushes for awhile, especially given how disastrous the ending of George W. Bush's presidency ended up. Americans aren't likely to forget that the economy ended up in the worst recession since the 1930's under GW Bush, which is not to assign blame, though many Americans will associate that with GOP policies just as the Great Depression led to 20 years of dominance by FDR and Truman's Democrats. The latest poll has Jeb at 13% in second place, right where he has been since Trump entered the race. The other problem for Jeb is that he is competing in a similar space for support with Rubio (8%) and Kasich (5%), both of whom bring to the table all that Bush does but without his last name. Another establishment candidate picking up a couple points is Rick Perry (2%). So here's how it looks if we consider the support levels by category rather than by candidate.
Establishment 28%
Trumpamania 24%
Evangelical 18%
Business 16%
Other 14%
The race will begin to consolidate in the fall as candidates fail to raise financial support and make traction with potential voters. The question will be who stands to benefit? Apart from Trump, who doesn't need financial support, money will be a serious barrier preventing many of these candidates from making it to Iowa next February. We'll know a lot more by mid-October when the third quarter fundraising numbers are released. From what we know right now, Jeb is flush with cash between his campaign and the Super PACs supporting his candidacy. Perry is in deep trouble and all but out of the race. Walker is relying on Super PACs and 501(c)4 money (from the Koch organization) so he'll likely remain viable through Iowa. Cruz is banking on a strong showing in the SEC primary (8 southern states on March 1, 2016).
Overall, I think the Trump candidacy is more of a flirtation by disgruntled GOP voters than an Ashley Madison arranged affair. Little by little they will begin to see that the emperor has no clothes and they'll move on. Many will do what Republicans always do, which is fall in line behind the party's choice. Right now, I'd put my money on Bush, Rubio, or Kasich as the eventual nominee. I think Bush or Rubio will be somewhere on the GOP ticket, whether as the nominee or the VP candidate.
I'll update the rankings and information as we progress through the fall and get closer to the actual voting. For now, enjoy Trumpamania runnin' wild all over you!
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