Away They Go!
The great horse racing caller Trevor Denman started his call of every race with the words 'Away they go' to indicate the horses had broken from the starting gate. As the calendar has changed from April to May, I can almost hear those words as the media here in the United States begins its incessant focus on polls, polls, and more polls. Political scientists refer to this as coverage of the horse race. Who is ahead? Who is behind? What strategy will work best for the leader to hang on to his lead until November 3rd? What should the trailing candidate do to make up the ground between him and the leader? This kind of journalistic coverage of campaigns is not without consequence, as this report shows. In sum, WHO the press talks about matters as much, if not more, than WHAT the press talks about.
That very fact is one of the reasons President Trump was so eager to hold nightly 'briefings' on the Coronavirus Pandemic from the White House, even if they were often little more than thinly-veiled campaign rallies meant to let his supporters know that he was a doing a 'great' job, that the administration's efforts to fight the pandemic have been a 'great success', and that the world was amazed by how wonderful our testing capacity is. It matters not whether any of these statements are true or false. What matters is getting them televised and broadcast to his supporters. The 'Bully Pulpit' is a wonderful thing...except when it is not. There is some evidence that the president's inability to focus on the facts and penchant for saying bizarre things, such as injecting disinfectant or light/heat into the body, may be dragging down his poll numbers.
On the other side of the race is the presumptive Democratic nominee, former Vice-President Joe Biden. While Biden has been relatively quiet since all but securing the nomination on Super Tuesday way back in the Before Times (March 2020), he has held 'virtual rallies' and delivered speeches from his basement in Delaware. In addition, Biden has faced allegations that he sexually harassed a staffer some 25+ years ago while he was a U.S. Senator. Both his campaign and Mr. Biden have vigorously and repeatedly denied the allegations, most recently in a Morning Joe interview with Mika Brzezinski on May 1, 2020.
Whether he is lying or telling the truth may never be known. The accuser's story seems to change regularly with new details added or 'clarifications' made about what she alleged at the time. Nobody who worked for Biden at the time has recalled anything about her claims. Of course, this does not mean they are untrue. It only means they cannot be validated or verified, just as the claims made by Christine Blasey Ford against (now) Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh could not be validated or verified. Most people will choose to believe what they want to based on their political preferences in cases such as these. The question here is how will these events affect the 'horse race'?
State of the Race-May 2020
As we enter May and (hopefully) the Coronavirus Pandemic begins to wind down, the country will return to some semblance of normality. The campaigns will fire up, the parties will hold their respective conventions, and celebrate their nominees, etc. Eventually, Americans will go to the polls (or mail in their ballots) in November and choose the next President of the United States. Will Donald Trump secure a second four-year term or will Joe Biden be elected as the 46th President of the United States. It is very difficult to predict six months out from election day, especially given the strange circumstances of 2020. The one sure thing is that the media will talk about the ongoing horse race every single day.
Currently, the polls show Joe Biden with a good lead in many critical states, such as Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. If he wins those three and all states won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, Joe Biden will be the next president. In a normal year, Biden would be campaigning heavily in those three states but he may not be able to do so if the pandemic lasts through the summer or returns in early fall. Biden also has a clear lead in most of the national polls conducted over the past few months, which tend to be more or less reflective of the eventual outcome in November (within a few percentage points). The only poll that has Trump tied or in the lead is a Fox News Poll conducted the first weekend of April.
One caveat must be mentioned regarding the polls at this point. First, it is way too early to assume that voters' attitudes will not shift between now and November. Sure, fierce partisans are set in stone, which means most Republicans will support President Trump and most Democrats will support Joe Biden. The swing voters that gravitated to Trump four years ago may be the key to the election in 2020, which is why paying close attention to quality polling in the key swing states may provide a clue to what will happen in November.
Additionally, the state of the economy will make a huge difference for the president. Americans tend to vote with their wallets or pocketbooks. If they are hurting when it comes time to vote, Trump will be in deep trouble. As of this writing, 30 million Americans have lost their jobs since the beginning of March. While some are beginning to return to work, it will be a slow, drawn-out process to get all those people back to full employment. There is a real possibility that some businesses, especially ones that were just getting by when the closures began, may never reopen. The nation went from a very low rate of unemployment at the end of the longest peacetime recovery in American history (2010-2020) to what could amount to an unemployment rate in excess of 20% in just 60 days. The preliminary data for March reflect a loss of 701,000 jobs during the month. April data will be forthcoming on May 8, 2020. When President Trump took office in January 2017, the unemployment rate was 4.7%. By February of 2020, the rate had fallen to 3.5%. What will the rate be in November? It may not matter as the perception of the economy will be formed during the next few months. President George H.W. Bush learned this the hard way back in 1992. Even though the economy had largely recovered from a minor recession early in the year, he was turned out of office after a single term.
If President Trump wins re-election in November, it will mark the first time in U.S. History that four successive presidents have been awarded two terms in office. Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and James Monroe each served two terms from 1801-1825. Likewise, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama served two terms from 1993-2017. Are we once again about to witness a one-term presidency?
The Political Science Models
Helmut Norpoth typically puts out his model predicting control of the White House around April 1 of each election year. This year's model (based on polls conducted prior to April 1) predicts President Trump has a 91% chance of re-election. Importantly though, Norpoth included a disclaimer that allows him to revise the model should future polling show a crack in Trump's support. It seems as though he wishes to hedge his bets given the Coronavirus Pandemic.
The three models that base their projections on current polling each show the Democratic nominee with an advantage. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has the Democrats with 248 Electoral Votes to Trump's 233 Electoral Votes, leaving 57 Electoral Votes up for grabs. Charlie Cook's model has the Democrats with 232 votes to Trump's 204 votes, leaving 102 votes up for grabs. Finally, the Inside Elections model has the Democrats leading Trump by 268-204, with 66 votes undecided.
Finally, Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist with a strong track record of accurately predicting election results, foresees a very close election that will likely hang on two factors. First, whether a recession occurs during the 2nd quarter of 2020, which is very likely given the data mentioned above. Second, it depends on whether voters will blame President Trump or the Coronavirus for the recession, or some combination of the two that attributes Trump's missteps regarding handling the pandemic to exacerbating the economic pain. The latter would result in the worst-case scenario for Trump and could produce a landslide defeat at the hands of Joe Biden. Supposing real GDP in the 2nd quarter declines by 3% (some analysts believe it could drop by 26% or more) and a net Trump approval rating of -10 (approval minus disapproval), Trump would secure only 184 Electoral Votes to Joe Biden's 354. Apart from one recent Gallup Poll in mid-April, Trump's net approval rating has hovered between -5 and -10 percentage points. Either scenario coupled with a disastrous recession could spell doom for the president. Keep in mind, however, that polls are only snapshots in time. They reflect the current mood of voters who are unlikely to be thinking about the election until a pollster asks them to do so.
That's it for now. We'll be back with an update next month. Until then, stay safe and healthy!
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